Will the Republican Party win the CA-48 House seat?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $771 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$771.13

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

89.1¢ → 99.4¢

+12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$764.77

Total Shares767

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$6.36

Total Shares1,273

Combined PnL-$98.36

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

685h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI SitsToPee	Noavg 93¢	$163.58	$388	+$1.8K	59% 702-479 (1181)
mountaindewd	Noavg 81¢	$162	$199	+$37.1	55% 359-299 (658)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 84.9¢	$149.8	$92.23	-$4.86	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$52.15	$52.04	-$0.11	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 85¢	$24.37	$28.52	+$4.16	44% 6474-8170 (14644)
AN anoin123CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$80.37	$5.02	-$75.35	45% 512-628 (1140)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 93¢	$4.65	$4.98	+$0.32	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$4.3	$0.42	-$3.87	48% 1884-2013 (3897)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.64	$0.41	-$1.23	18% 4279-20045 (24324)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.3¢	$49.35	$0.31	-$15.36	50% 2434-2396 (4830)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.25	$0.13	-$1.11	49% 2670-2811 (5481)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$1.51	$0.07	-$1.44	77% 12289-3775 (16064)

SitsToPee

Invested

$163.58

Value

$388

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

59%

702-479 (1181)

mountaindewd

Invested

$162

Value

$199

PnL

+$37.1

Record

55%

359-299 (658)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$149.8

Value

$92.23

PnL

-$4.86

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$52.15

Value

$52.04

PnL

-$0.11

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

korda77<$100

Invested

$24.37

Value

$28.52

PnL

+$4.16

Record

44%

6474-8170 (14644)

anoin123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.37

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$75.35

Record

45%

512-628 (1140)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.32

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.3

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$3.87

Record

48%

1884-2013 (3897)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$1.23

Record

18%

4279-20045 (24324)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.35

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$15.36

Record

50%

2434-2396 (4830)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.25

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$1.11

Record

49%

2670-2811 (5481)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.51

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$1.44

Record

77%

12289-3775 (16064)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

685h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.