Will the Republican Party win the CA-23 House seat?

6 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (21%) · Yes at 79¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 4

Yes79¢No21¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 21%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$751.56

Smart Money Entry

81.3¢ → 78.8¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 28 top traders (21%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares4,671

Combined PnL+$521.17

No22 traders

Total Value$658.3

Total Shares2,812

Combined PnL+$230.39

Yes — 21%No — 79%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (20 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 20

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 87.1¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$85.87	66% 271-142 (413)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Yesavg 58¢	$75.4	$549.44	+$581.64	56% 18295-14214 (32509)
GA Gaditima	Yesavg 81.1¢	$352.84	$375.41	+$22.58	48% 7105-7804 (14909)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100	Yesavg 76.8¢	$548.36	$369.68	+$71.82	45% 2824-3398 (6222)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 76.8¢	$281.86	$289.28	+$53.1
└ No leg	Noavg 17.5¢	$66.35	$80.41	+$18.73
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 74.7¢	$389.77	$334.95	+$45.19	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
balthazarCTR	Noavg 16¢	$97.52	$122.64	+$25.12	53% 29258-26174 (55432)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 93.2¢	$143.48	$112.48	-$31.01	77% 12312-3779 (16091)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Noavg 15.6¢	$80.83	$98.44	+$17.61	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
└ No leg	Noavg 15.6¢	$43.61	$59.02	+$15.41
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 74.4¢	$37.22	$39.43	+$2.21
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Noavg 19.9¢	$283.6	$87.2	+$14.1	56% 15850-12549 (28399)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 19.3¢	$72.39	$81.6	+$9.21	72% 13979-5358 (19337)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100	Noavg 41.5¢	$97.57	$72.14	-$25.45	70% 169-72 (241)
SI SitsToPeeCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$3.9	$64.1	+$99.18	60% 733-485 (1218)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 18.1¢	$123.64	$36.05	+$8.37	53% 8228-7325 (15553)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Noavg 16.4¢	$19.42	$33.04	+$13.63	56% 453-353 (806)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 4.5¢	$5.34	$31.68	+$26.34	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Noavg 3.9¢	$3.9	$26.4	+$22.5	73% 12875-4800 (17675)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 27.9¢	$25.09	$23.74	-$1.36	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Yesavg 85¢	$33.95	$22.59	-$11.36	50% 2435-2398 (4833)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 21.3¢	$15.56	$14.75	-$0.81	61% 14874-9334 (24208)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Noavg 18.2¢	$10.92	$13.14	+$2.22	21% 315-1207 (1522)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Noavg 3.7¢	$1.48	$10.56	+$9.08	53% 1811-1575 (3386)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 20.3¢	$9.16	$9.81	+$0.66	47% 1690-1872 (3562)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR	Noavg 18.9¢	$166.86	$9.62	+$30.47	51% 258-247 (505)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 52.8¢	$11.63	$5.81	-$5.82	47% 2141-2439 (4580)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 31.6¢	$6.46	$5.4	-$1.05	40% 2177-3221 (5398)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$2,248.02

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$85.87

Record

66%

271-142 (413)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Yes

Invested

$75.4

Value

$549.44

PnL

+$581.64

Record

56%

18295-14214 (32509)

Gaditima

Yes

Invested

$352.84

Value

$375.41

PnL

+$22.58

Record

48%

7105-7804 (14909)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$548.36

Value

$369.68

PnL

+$71.82

Record

45%

2824-3398 (6222)

Both legs:

Yes$281.8676.8¢+$53.1

No$66.3517.5¢+$18.73

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$389.77

Value

$334.95

PnL

+$45.19

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

balthazarCTR

Invested

$97.52

Value

$122.64

PnL

+$25.12

Record

53%

29258-26174 (55432)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$143.48

Value

$112.48

PnL

-$31.01

Record

77%

12312-3779 (16091)

cigarettesARB<$100

Invested

$80.83

Value

$98.44

PnL

+$17.61

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

Both legs:

No$43.6115.6¢+$15.41

Yes$37.2274.4¢+$2.21

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Invested

$283.6

Value

$87.2

PnL

+$14.1

Record

56%

15850-12549 (28399)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$72.39

Value

$81.6

PnL

+$9.21

Record

72%

13979-5358 (19337)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100

Invested

$97.57

Value

$72.14

PnL

-$25.45

Record

70%

169-72 (241)

SitsToPeeCTR<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

$64.1

PnL

+$99.18

Record

60%

733-485 (1218)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$123.64

Value

$36.05

PnL

+$8.37

Record

53%

8228-7325 (15553)

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Invested

$19.42

Value

$33.04

PnL

+$13.63

Record

56%

453-353 (806)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$5.34

Value

$31.68

PnL

+$26.34

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

$26.4

PnL

+$22.5

Record

73%

12875-4800 (17675)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$25.09

Value

$23.74

PnL

-$1.36

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.95

Value

$22.59

PnL

-$11.36

Record

50%

2435-2398 (4833)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$15.56

Value

$14.75

PnL

-$0.81

Record

61%

14874-9334 (24208)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Invested

$10.92

Value

$13.14

PnL

+$2.22

Record

21%

315-1207 (1522)

cowcatCTR<$100

Invested

$1.48

Value

$10.56

PnL

+$9.08

Record

53%

1811-1575 (3386)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$9.16

Value

$9.81

PnL

+$0.66

Record

47%

1690-1872 (3562)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR

Invested

$166.86

Value

$9.62

PnL

+$30.47

Record

51%

258-247 (505)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$11.63

Value

$5.81

PnL

-$5.82

Record

47%

2141-2439 (4580)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$6.46

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$1.05

Record

40%

2177-3221 (5398)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 28 top traders (21%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (20 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 20

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.5%

78.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.