Will the Republican Party win the CA-13 House seat?

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 93¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Entry

91.5¢ → 93.3¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,293

Combined PnL+$1.24

Yes7 traders

Total Value$158.51

Total Shares2,448

Combined PnL$-2.1K

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Seutervoinen	Noavg 91¢	$511.99	$528.31	+$16.32	85% 315-57 (372)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 90.2¢	$382.72	$333.38	-$15.9	35% 17534-32777 (50311)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 92.9¢	$130.05	$130.54	+$0.49	60% 11476-7595 (19071)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 93.5¢	$123.84	$95.6	+$0.78	50% 9462-9453 (18915)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 94.9¢	$93.26	$92.52	-$0.74	25% 302-922 (1224)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$58.77	$66.83	+$8.06	50% 1695-1680 (3375)
SI SitsToPeeCTR	Yes	$4.8K	$44.34	$-2.1K	61% 289-185 (474)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 4.8¢	$106.66	$29.69	+$15.65	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$17.78	$17.97	+$0.19	42% 5383-7429 (12812)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$11.4	$11.5	+$0.1	40% 2052-3074 (5126)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.5¢	$30.26	$7.5	-$22.76	51% 2129-2037 (4166)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$5.22	$6.3	+$1.08	48% 6887-7538 (14425)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$2.9	$3	+$0.1	50% 1332-1342 (2674)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$3.07	$0.85	-$2.23	53% 1588-1422 (3010)

Seutervoinen

Invested

$511.99

Value

$528.31

PnL

+$16.32

Record

85%

315-57 (372)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$382.72

Value

$333.38

PnL

-$15.9

Record

35%

17534-32777 (50311)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$130.05

Value

$130.54

PnL

+$0.49

Record

60%

11476-7595 (19071)

quietparcel

Invested

$123.84

Value

$95.6

PnL

+$0.78

Record

50%

9462-9453 (18915)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$93.26

Value

$92.52

PnL

-$0.74

Record

25%

302-922 (1224)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.77

Value

$66.83

PnL

+$8.06

Record

50%

1695-1680 (3375)

SitsToPeeCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,755.3

Value

$44.34

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

61%

289-185 (474)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$106.66

Value

$29.69

PnL

+$15.65

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$17.78

Value

$17.97

PnL

+$0.19

Record

42%

5383-7429 (12812)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$11.4

Value

$11.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

40%

2052-3074 (5126)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.26

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$22.76

Record

51%

2129-2037 (4166)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.22

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$1.08

Record

48%

6887-7538 (14425)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

1332-1342 (2674)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.07

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$2.23

Record

53%

1588-1422 (3010)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.5%

93.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.