Will the Republican Party win the AZ-08 House seat?

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 96¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes96¢No4¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$181.01

Smart Money Entry

81.4¢ → 96¢

+18% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,011

Combined PnL+$289.25

No8 traders

Total Value$27.94

Total Shares673

Combined PnL-$108.23

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	Yesavg 94.7¢	$1.3K	$926.49	+$11.77	48% 7296-8001 (15297)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 70.3¢	$1.7K	$848.13	+$224.59	45% 2914-3563 (6477)
CI cigarettes	Yesavg 67.1¢	$165.12	$135.31	+$46.68	53% 23170-20401 (43571)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$17.35	$19.15	+$1.8	60% 2633-1748 (4381)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$10.41	$8.8	-$1.61	56% 16121-12865 (28986)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR	Noavg 2.8¢	$529.85	$8.1	-$19.13	51% 290-283 (573)
PE peepeepooppoop	Yesavg 78¢	$188.3	$3.54	+$4.41	50% 2489-2443 (4932)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Noavg 26.8¢	$20.57	$3.15	-$16.72	56% 624-483 (1107)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 18.6¢	$13	$2.87	-$10.13	44% 6591-8244 (14835)
PL plainfolderCTR<$100	Noavg 20.5¢	$12.3	$2.46	-$9.84	31% 3549-7933 (11482)
SI SitsToPeeCTR	Noavg 19¢	$293.55	$1.28	-$48.16	60% 759-515 (1274)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$3.61	$0.7	-$2.9	49% 8980-9510 (18490)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 0.8¢	$0.33	$0.59	+$0.26	47% 2258-2536 (4794)

Gaditima

Yes

Invested

$1,263.18

Value

$926.49

PnL

+$11.77

Record

48%

7296-8001 (15297)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$1,674.23

Value

$848.13

PnL

+$224.59

Record

45%

2914-3563 (6477)

cigarettes

Yes

Invested

$165.12

Value

$135.31

PnL

+$46.68

Record

53%

23170-20401 (43571)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.35

Value

$19.15

PnL

+$1.8

Record

60%

2633-1748 (4381)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Invested

$10.41

Value

$8.8

PnL

-$1.61

Record

56%

16121-12865 (28986)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR

Invested

$529.85

Value

$8.1

PnL

-$19.13

Record

51%

290-283 (573)

peepeepooppoop

Yes

Invested

$188.3

Value

$3.54

PnL

+$4.41

Record

50%

2489-2443 (4932)

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Invested

$20.57

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$16.72

Record

56%

624-483 (1107)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$13

Value

$2.87

PnL

-$10.13

Record

44%

6591-8244 (14835)

plainfolderCTR<$100

Invested

$12.3

Value

$2.46

PnL

-$9.84

Record

31%

3549-7933 (11482)

SitsToPeeCTR

Invested

$293.55

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$48.16

Record

60%

759-515 (1274)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$3.61

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$2.9

Record

49%

8980-9510 (18490)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.59

PnL

+$0.26

Record

47%

2258-2536 (4794)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.