Will the Republican Party hold more governorships after the 2026 midterms?

18 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 94¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$736.96

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 94¢

+38% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 24 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No18 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,947

Combined PnL+$781.06

Yes6 traders

Total Value$257.3

Total Shares3,553

Combined PnL-$44.09

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

77h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 1¢	$5.84	$515.52	+$560.25	47% 2044-2320 (4364)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 90.9¢	$416.82	$431.14	+$14.32	43% 3085-4123 (7208)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 77.4¢	$470.12	$366.45	+$4.91	35% 17534-32777 (50311)
NO northdrawer	Noavg 36.1¢	$118.27	$307.94	+$189.68	61% 15600-9906 (25506)
Istaroth	Noavg 92.9¢	$264.36	$262.33	-$0.55	16% 427-2295 (2722)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 8.1¢	$212.77	$183.78	-$28.99	71% 6980-2790 (9770)
AK akroll	Noavg 97.5¢	$174.54	$170.36	-$4.18	29% 373-898 (1271)
PO pollo07	Noavg 96.6¢	$173.04	$170.36	-$2.68	30% 369-870 (1239)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$150.16	$133.68	-$16.49	54% 22016-19117 (41133)
└ No leg	Noavg 92.1¢	$83.4	$85.11	+$1.71
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 8.2¢	$66.76	$48.57	-$18.19
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 87.9¢	$143.25	$132.83	+$12.82	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
PU PutsOnPeace<$100	Noavg 90¢	$90	$93	+$1.5	67% 958-482 (1440)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$73.53	$75.1	+$1.57	20% 2456-9837 (12293)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 90.1¢	$66.08	$69	+$2.92	42% 3646-5045 (8691)
LP lpgb	Noavg 90.4¢	$156.86	$67.3	+$1.75	25% 302-922 (1224)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.3¢	$57.02	$51.9	-$5.12	46% 7593-8827 (16420)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 97¢	$51.5	$50	-$1.5	28% 329-852 (1181)
KL klli27<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$51.08	$50	-$1.08	29% 357-873 (1230)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$46.63	$46.5	-$0.13	53% 7888-7001 (14889)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 92.1¢	$124.28	$27.9	-$0.08	50% 9462-9453 (18915)
macrosteaksCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$14.87	$12.25	-$2.63	55% 3434-2832 (6266)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$16.45	$12.08	+$0.95	55% 4330-3516 (7846)
sciuboi<$100	Noavg 86¢	$9.05	$9.79	+$0.58	38% 205-329 (534)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$14.94	$6.88	-$8.06	27% 6668-18439 (25107)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$50.69	$1.62	+$0.28	30% 2095-4886 (6981)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$1.24	$0.86	+$0.41	40% 2052-3074 (5126)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$5.84

Value

$515.52

PnL

+$560.25

Record

47%

2044-2320 (4364)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$416.82

Value

$431.14

PnL

+$14.32

Record

43%

3085-4123 (7208)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$470.12

Value

$366.45

PnL

+$4.91

Record

35%

17534-32777 (50311)

northdrawer

Invested

$118.27

Value

$307.94

PnL

+$189.68

Record

61%

15600-9906 (25506)

Istaroth

Invested

$264.36

Value

$262.33

PnL

-$0.55

Record

16%

427-2295 (2722)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$212.77

Value

$183.78

PnL

-$28.99

Record

71%

6980-2790 (9770)

akroll

Invested

$174.54

Value

$170.36

PnL

-$4.18

Record

29%

373-898 (1271)

pollo07

Invested

$173.04

Value

$170.36

PnL

-$2.68

Record

30%

369-870 (1239)

cigarettesARB<$100

Invested

$150.16

Value

$133.68

PnL

-$16.49

Record

54%

22016-19117 (41133)

Both legs:

No$83.492.1¢+$1.71

Yes$66.768.2¢-$18.19

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$143.25

Value

$132.83

PnL

+$12.82

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

PutsOnPeace<$100

Invested

$90

Value

$93

PnL

+$1.5

Record

67%

958-482 (1440)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$73.53

Value

$75.1

PnL

+$1.57

Record

20%

2456-9837 (12293)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$66.08

Value

$69

PnL

+$2.92

Record

42%

3646-5045 (8691)

lpgb

Invested

$156.86

Value

$67.3

PnL

+$1.75

Record

25%

302-922 (1224)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.02

Value

$51.9

PnL

-$5.12

Record

46%

7593-8827 (16420)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$51.5

Value

$50

PnL

-$1.5

Record

28%

329-852 (1181)

klli27<$100

Invested

$51.08

Value

$50

PnL

-$1.08

Record

29%

357-873 (1230)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$46.63

Value

$46.5

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

7888-7001 (14889)

quietparcel

Invested

$124.28

Value

$27.9

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

9462-9453 (18915)

macrosteaksCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.87

Value

$12.25

PnL

-$2.63

Record

55%

3434-2832 (6266)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$16.45

Value

$12.08

PnL

+$0.95

Record

55%

4330-3516 (7846)

sciuboi<$100

Invested

$9.05

Value

$9.79

PnL

+$0.58

Record

38%

205-329 (534)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.94

Value

$6.88

PnL

-$8.06

Record

27%

6668-18439 (25107)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.69

Value

$1.62

PnL

+$0.28

Record

30%

2095-4886 (6981)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.24

Value

$0.86

PnL

+$0.41

Record

40%

2052-3074 (5126)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 24 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

77h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.