Will the Republican Party control the Pennsylvania Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 56¢ · $644 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$644
$95.66
57.5¢ → 56¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 58.9¢ | $711.45 | $401.17 | +$56.35 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 71.5¢ | $123.5 | $106.01 | -$2.1 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 43.1¢ | $44.47 | $73.32 | +$28.85 | 52% 5046-4717 (9763) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 50.2¢ | $39.64 | $34.6 | +$8.86 | 18% 3833-17382 (21215) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $9.35 | $15.45 | +$6.09 | 48% 3491-3826 (7317) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.3¢ | $15.42 | $13.02 | -$2.39 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
Invested
$711.45
Value
$401.17
PnL
+$56.35
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
IstarothInvested
$123.5
Value
$106.01
PnL
-$2.1
Record
18%
366-1654 (2020)
Invested
$44.47
Value
$73.32
PnL
+$28.85
Record
52%
5046-4717 (9763)
2B9S<$100Invested
$39.64
Value
$34.6
PnL
+$8.86
Record
18%
3833-17382 (21215)
Invested
$9.35
Value
$15.45
PnL
+$6.09
Record
48%
3491-3826 (7317)
Invested
$15.42
Value
$13.02
PnL
-$2.39
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.