Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (91%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming Senate election by 30%-35%?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 9.0¢ · $896 held · ended Nov 4

Yes91¢No9¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$896.24

Combined PnL

$342.79

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 9¢

-87% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 91%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes91%

No9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$830.19

Total Shares909

Combined PnL+$459.27

No6 traders

Total Value$66.05

Total Shares329

Combined PnL-$116.47

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shiifoo	Yesavg 10.2¢	$241.59	$371.28	+$129.69	59% 3791-2625 (6416)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 19.2¢	$41.41	$196.6	+$155.2	35% 18725-34748 (53473)
RA RadioCCOD	Yesavg 16.6¢	$31	$169.62	+$138.62	30% 68-160 (228)
thanksforplayin<$100	Yesavg 32.6¢	$19.92	$55.68	+$35.76	56% 606-468 (1074)
LP lpgb<$100	Yesavg 91¢	$37	$37	+$0	27% 532-1439 (1971)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 80.1¢	$81.76	$27.39	-$72.57	20% 2762-10914 (13676)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 85¢	$21.4	$20	-$1.4	14% 503-3047 (3550)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Noavg 83.6¢	$46.37	$13.26	-$33.11	45% 2879-3530 (6409)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$2.7	$2.7	-$0	51% 3741-3595 (7336)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$3.2	$1.8	-$1.4	61% 14976-9440 (24416)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 89¢	$8.9	$0.9	-$8	49% 8958-9484 (18442)

shiifoo

Yes

Invested

$241.59

Value

$371.28

PnL

+$129.69

Record

59%

3791-2625 (6416)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$41.41

Value

$196.6

PnL

+$155.2

Record

35%

18725-34748 (53473)

RadioCCOD

Yes

Invested

$31

Value

$169.62

PnL

+$138.62

Record

30%

68-160 (228)

thanksforplayin<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.92

Value

$55.68

PnL

+$35.76

Record

56%

606-468 (1074)

lpgb<$100

Yes

Invested

$37

Value

$37

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

532-1439 (1971)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$81.76

Value

$27.39

PnL

-$72.57

Record

20%

2762-10914 (13676)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$21.4

Value

$20

PnL

-$1.4

Record

14%

503-3047 (3550)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Invested

$46.37

Value

$13.26

PnL

-$33.11

Record

45%

2879-3530 (6409)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

3741-3595 (7336)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$1.4

Record

61%

14976-9440 (24416)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$8.9

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$8

Record

49%

8958-9484 (18442)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 91%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance10.4%

9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$865.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

965.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.