Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 50% or more?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 54¢ · $692 held · ended Nov 4

Yes46¢No54¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$691.77

Combined PnL

-$305.3

Smart Money Entry

78.7¢ → 53.8¢

-32% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$49.9

Total Shares51

Combined PnL+$29.92

No12 traders

Total Value$64.73

Total Shares630

Combined PnL-$335.22

Yes — 8%No — 92%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 62.2¢	$468.48	$577.14	+$147.63	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
└ No leg	Noavg 62.2¢	$391.9	$336.02	-$54.6
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7.5¢	$38.88	$241.12	+$202.24
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Yesavg 39.2¢	$19.98	$49.9	+$29.92	56% 444-352 (796)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 89.2¢	$50.1	$25.43	-$24.66	15% 459-2699 (3158)
SH shiifoo<$100	Noavg 74.9¢	$64.77	$20	+$3.17	59% 3711-2576 (6287)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl	Noavg 92¢	$202.38	$4.2	-$125.4	— 6-7 (13)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 92.4¢	$40.17	$3.29	-$36.89	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 3.1¢	$0.16	$2.66	+$2.5	39% 5615-8617 (14232)
AN anciano<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$79.76	$2.43	-$77.33	54% 1299-1119 (2418)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 51.5¢	$41.19	$2.4	-$38.79	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
DO donthackme<$100	No	$1.69	$1.69	+$0	73% 12849-4764 (17613)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 41.9¢	$20.14	$1.44	-$18.7	46% 10278-11960 (22238)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 9.6¢	$1.92	$0.6	-$1.32	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 90.8¢	$9.08	$0.3	-$8.78	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$9.33	$0.3	-$9.03	31% 3445-7743 (11188)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$468.48

Value

$577.14

PnL

+$147.63

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

Both legs:

No$391.962.2¢-$54.6

Yes$38.887.5¢+$202.24

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.98

Value

$49.9

PnL

+$29.92

Record

56%

444-352 (796)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$50.1

Value

$25.43

PnL

-$24.66

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

shiifoo<$100

Invested

$64.77

Value

$20

PnL

+$3.17

Record

59%

3711-2576 (6287)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl

Invested

$202.38

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$125.4

Record

—

6-7 (13)

cigarettes

Invested

$40.17

Value

$3.29

PnL

-$36.89

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$0.16

Value

$2.66

PnL

+$2.5

Record

39%

5615-8617 (14232)

anciano<$100

Invested

$79.76

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$77.33

Record

54%

1299-1119 (2418)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$41.19

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$38.79

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$1.69

Value

$1.69

PnL

+$0

Record

73%

12849-4764 (17613)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$20.14

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$18.7

Record

46%

10278-11960 (22238)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$1.92

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$1.32

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.08

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$8.78

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$9.33

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$9.03

Record

31%

3445-7743 (11188)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.8%

53.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.