Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 45%-50%?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 90¢ · $954 held · ended Nov 4

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$954.06

Combined PnL

-$12.93

Smart Money Entry

88.3¢ → 90.3¢

+2% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$954.05

Total Shares969

Combined PnL-$12.93

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 83.2¢	$686.26	$487.87	+$26.64	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 96.6¢	$57.96	$96.2	-$32.63	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
SH shiifoo<$100	Noavg 76.7¢	$66.54	$88.11	+$17.95	59% 3713-2582 (6295)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$79.74	$70.28	-$9.46	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Noavg 91¢	$54.56	$52.67	-$1.89	71% 7122-2863 (9985)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$64.46	$52.67	-$2.27	— 7-7 (14)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 93.7¢	$33.68	$31.57	-$2.11	73% 12875-4800 (17675)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$26.35	-$3.53	46% 10318-12012 (22330)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$19.92	$17.57	-$2.35	53% 29258-26174 (55432)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 99¢	$19.8	$17.57	-$2.23	31% 3488-7778 (11266)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 94.8¢	$9.48	$8.79	-$0.7	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$4.76	$4.39	-$0.37	39% 5666-8726 (14392)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$686.26

Value

$487.87

PnL

+$26.64

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

cigarettes

Invested

$57.96

Value

$96.2

PnL

-$32.63

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

shiifoo<$100

Invested

$66.54

Value

$88.11

PnL

+$17.95

Record

59%

3713-2582 (6295)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$79.74

Value

$70.28

PnL

-$9.46

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Invested

$54.56

Value

$52.67

PnL

-$1.89

Record

71%

7122-2863 (9985)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl<$100

Invested

$64.46

Value

$52.67

PnL

-$2.27

Record

—

7-7 (14)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$33.68

Value

$31.57

PnL

-$2.11

Record

73%

12875-4800 (17675)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$26.35

PnL

-$3.53

Record

46%

10318-12012 (22330)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.92

Value

$17.57

PnL

-$2.35

Record

53%

29258-26174 (55432)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$17.57

PnL

-$2.23

Record

31%

3488-7778 (11266)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.48

Value

$8.79

PnL

-$0.7

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.39

PnL

-$0.37

Record

39%

5666-8726 (14392)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.6%

90.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.