Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 30%-35%?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 76¢ · $231 held · ends Nov 4

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$231.42

Combined PnL

$22.83

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$179.36

Total Shares236

Combined PnL+$3.54

Yes3 traders

Total Value$52.06

Total Shares219

Combined PnL+$19.29

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL Albert 1953	Noavg 75¢	$177	$179.36	+$3.54	50% 1097-1102 (2199)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$12.03	$27.38	+$7.38	72% 6955-2760 (9715)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.7¢	$84	$19.74	+$10.76	59% 3596-2496 (6092)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$3.78	$4.94	+$1.15	—

Albert 1953

Invested

$177

Value

$179.36

PnL

+$3.54

Record

50%

1097-1102 (2199)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.03

Value

$27.38

PnL

+$7.38

Record

72%

6955-2760 (9715)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84

Value

$19.74

PnL

+$10.76

Record

59%

3596-2496 (6092)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.78

Value

$4.94

PnL

+$1.15

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.7%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.