Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $933 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$933.43

Combined PnL

$0.29

Smart Money Entry

84.5¢ → 99.3¢

+18% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$576.69

Total Shares565

Combined PnL+$64.51

Yes2 traders

Total Value$35.16

Total Shares395

Combined PnL-$64.22

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+53 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 82.2¢	$297.08	$339.11	+$42.02	71% 7122-2863 (9985)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 17.5¢	$353.59	$321.58	-$32.01	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.5¢	$167.5	$227.05	+$59.55
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.5¢	$186.09	$94.53	-$91.56
CI cigarettes	Noavg 81¢	$16.2	$109.06	+$13.98	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR	Yesavg 26.3¢	$107.16	$33.94	-$67.77	— 7-7 (14)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$29.48	$29.88	+$0.4	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$29.45	$29.88	+$0.43	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$19.63	$19.92	+$0.29	53% 29258-26174 (55432)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 84¢	$16.8	$19.92	+$3.12	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 83¢	$16.6	$19.92	+$3.32	20% 2590-10277 (12867)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89¢	$8.05	$9	+$0.96	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yes	$29.34	$1.22	+$3.55	73% 12875-4800 (17675)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$297.08

Value

$339.11

PnL

+$42.02

Record

71%

7122-2863 (9985)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$353.59

Value

$321.58

PnL

-$32.01

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

Both legs:

No$167.573.5¢+$59.55

Yes$186.0917.5¢-$91.56

cigarettes

Invested

$16.2

Value

$109.06

PnL

+$13.98

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR

Yes

Invested

$107.16

Value

$33.94

PnL

-$67.77

Record

—

7-7 (14)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$29.48

Value

$29.88

PnL

+$0.4

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.45

Value

$29.88

PnL

+$0.43

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.63

Value

$19.92

PnL

+$0.29

Record

53%

29258-26174 (55432)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$19.92

PnL

+$3.12

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$16.6

Value

$19.92

PnL

+$3.32

Record

20%

2590-10277 (12867)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.05

Value

PnL

+$0.96

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.34

Value

$1.22

PnL

+$3.55

Record

73%

12875-4800 (17675)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+53 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.