Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 98¢ · $284 held · ended Nov 4

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$283.65

Combined PnL

-$183.75

Smart Money Entry

93.1¢ → 98¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$222.08

Total Shares342

Combined PnL-$87.3

Yes5 traders

Total Value$61.56

Total Shares1,345

Combined PnL-$96.46

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 90¢	$44.53	$71.01	-$17.21	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 8.4¢	$196.89	$58.61	-$88.36	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 91.7¢	$45.85	$50.58	-$19.03	45% 2824-3398 (6222)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$48.35	$32.43	-$15.93	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$33.78	$22.7	-$11.08	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$29.49	$19.46	-$10.04	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
Car<$100	Noavg 88¢	$17.6	$12.97	-$7.3	67% 4218-2061 (6279)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$19.65	$12.94	-$6.71	53% 29258-26174 (55432)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.1¢	$26.52	$2.02	-$24.5	71% 7122-2863 (9985)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.2¢	$4	$0.64	+$19.07	59% 3713-2582 (6295)
RayGuyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.16	$0.16	+$0	—
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yes	$5.65	$0.14	-$2.67	73% 12875-4800 (17675)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$44.53

Value

$71.01

PnL

-$17.21

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$196.89

Value

$58.61

PnL

-$88.36

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$45.85

Value

$50.58

PnL

-$19.03

Record

45%

2824-3398 (6222)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$48.35

Value

$32.43

PnL

-$15.93

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$33.78

Value

$22.7

PnL

-$11.08

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.49

Value

$19.46

PnL

-$10.04

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

Car<$100

Invested

$17.6

Value

$12.97

PnL

-$7.3

Record

67%

4218-2061 (6279)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.65

Value

$12.94

PnL

-$6.71

Record

53%

29258-26174 (55432)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.52

Value

$2.02

PnL

-$24.5

Record

71%

7122-2863 (9985)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.64

PnL

+$19.07

Record

59%

3713-2582 (6295)

RayGuyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.16

PnL

+$0

Record

—

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.65

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$2.67

Record

73%

12875-4800 (17675)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.