Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-09 House election by 30%-35%?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 60¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes60¢No40¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$456.37

Smart Money Entry

26.5¢ → 60¢

+127% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,196

Combined PnL+$718.8

No2 traders

Total Value$254.26

Total Shares636

Combined PnL-$262.43

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 27.4¢	$552.3	$1.2K	+$649.16	61% 203-132 (335)
IstarothCTR	Noavg 73.1¢	$559.29	$214	-$253.1	18% 364-1623 (1987)
fkpa	Yesavg 16.5¢	$35.68	$105.31	+$69.64	— 1-0 (1)
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100	Noavg 58.8¢	$49.6	$40.26	-$9.33	50% 1093-1094 (2187)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$552.3

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$649.16

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$559.29

Value

$214

PnL

-$253.1

Record

18%

364-1623 (1987)

fkpa

Yes

Invested

$35.68

Value

$105.31

PnL

+$69.64

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Albert 1953CTR<$100

Invested

$49.6

Value

$40.26

PnL

-$9.33

Record

50%

1093-1094 (2187)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.0%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$61.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

161.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.