Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-32 House election by 0%-3%?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 47¢ · $454 held · ended Nov 4

Yes47¢No53¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$453.59

Combined PnL

$361.98

Smart Money Entry

12.4¢ → 47.3¢

+281% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$453.59

Total Shares970

Combined PnL+$361.98

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 5.3¢	$13.7	$127.3	+$113.6	34% 19419-36966 (56385)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$36.59	$98.29	+$62.91	45% 3009-3702 (6711)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.7¢	$7.41	$78.07	+$70.66	47% 4084-4642 (8726)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$7.24	$60.01	+$52.77	40% 1583-2384 (3967)
HolyMoses7CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$5.09	$38.06	+$32.97	50% 1759-1780 (3539)
RayGuyCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.8¢	$10.36	$32.73	+$21.11	82% 23-5 (28)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Yesavg 32.2¢	$12.22	$17.77	+$6.65	56% 719-567 (1286)
RA RadioCCODCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$0.05	$1.37	+$1.31	36% 102-180 (282)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$13.7

Value

$127.3

PnL

+$113.6

Record

34%

19419-36966 (56385)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.59

Value

$98.29

PnL

+$62.91

Record

45%

3009-3702 (6711)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.41

Value

$78.07

PnL

+$70.66

Record

47%

4084-4642 (8726)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.24

Value

$60.01

PnL

+$52.77

Record

40%

1583-2384 (3967)

HolyMoses7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.09

Value

$38.06

PnL

+$32.97

Record

50%

1759-1780 (3539)

RayGuyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.36

Value

$32.73

PnL

+$21.11

Record

82%

23-5 (28)

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.22

Value

$17.77

PnL

+$6.65

Record

56%

719-567 (1286)

RadioCCODCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$1.37

PnL

+$1.31

Record

36%

102-180 (282)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.