Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-31 House election by 20%-25%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 76¢ · $218 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$218.06
$16.31
79.5¢ → 76.3¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 79.8¢ | $172.66 | $130.76 | -$30.78 | 36% 14598-26253 (40851) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 79.1¢ | $37.7 | $36.36 | -$1.34 | 18% 3771-16775 (20546) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 78.2¢ | $30.25 | $30.03 | -$0.16 | 31% 273-604 (877) |
 AnjunCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $11.55 | $15.34 | +$3.79 | 55% 4884-3939 (8823) |
 fkpaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.1¢ | $75.52 | $5.57 | +$44.79 | — 1-0 (1) |
Invested
$172.66
Value
$130.76
PnL
-$30.78
Record
36%
14598-26253 (40851)
2B9S<$100Invested
$37.7
Value
$36.36
PnL
-$1.34
Record
18%
3771-16775 (20546)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$30.25
Value
$30.03
PnL
-$0.16
Record
31%
273-604 (877)
AnjunCTR<$100Invested
$11.55
Value
$15.34
PnL
+$3.79
Record
55%
4884-3939 (8823)
fkpaCTR<$100Invested
$75.52
Value
$5.57
PnL
+$44.79
Record
—
1-0 (1)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.