Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-27 House election by 15%-20%?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 79¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$8.41

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 79¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,047

Combined PnL-$16.04

Yes2 traders

Total Value$45.5

Total Shares228

Combined PnL+$24.45

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 75.1¢	$831.55	$745.52	+$3.97	36% 14999-27063 (42062)
Istaroth	Noavg 82.6¢	$462.84	$354	-$22.43	24% 285-894 (1179)
fkpaCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.2¢	$81.61	$24.9	+$23.42	— 1-0 (1)
AN anoin123CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$19.57	$20.6	+$1.03	47% 449-515 (964)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 69¢	$15.18	$17.6	+$2.42	45% 1829-2273 (4102)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$831.55

Value

$745.52

PnL

+$3.97

Record

36%

14999-27063 (42062)

Istaroth

Invested

$462.84

Value

$354

PnL

-$22.43

Record

24%

285-894 (1179)

fkpaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.61

Value

$24.9

PnL

+$23.42

Record

—

1-0 (1)

anoin123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.57

Value

$20.6

PnL

+$1.03

Record

47%

449-515 (964)

123987456<$100

Invested

$15.18

Value

$17.6

PnL

+$2.42

Record

45%

1829-2273 (4102)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.6%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.