Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-25 House election by 5%-10%?

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 41¢ · $654 held · ended Nov 4

Yes59¢No41¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 13%

Total Value

$654.11

Combined PnL

$183.12

Research grade

NeutralNo at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$269.2

Total Shares663

Combined PnL-$82.38

Yes7 traders

Total Value$384.91

Total Shares648

Combined PnL+$265.5

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

76h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 52.3¢	$460.55	$269.2	-$82.38	34% 19319-36895 (56214)
RayGuy	Yesavg 78.5¢	$81.44	$116.39	+$34.96	82% 23-5 (28)
HolyMoses7	Yesavg 39.8¢	$76.77	$114.51	+$44.49	50% 1757-1780 (3537)
Anjun<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$16	$47.52	+$61.92	55% 5188-4275 (9463)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$1.35	$38.49	+$56.68	45% 2992-3689 (6681)
RA RadioCCOD<$100	Yesavg 6.8¢	$3.73	$32.36	+$49.3	36% 96-174 (270)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl<$100	Yesavg 28.7¢	$11.48	$23.76	+$10.28	41% 14-20 (34)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$4	$11.88	+$7.88	17% 4501-22036 (26537)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$460.55

Value

$269.2

PnL

-$82.38

Record

34%

19319-36895 (56214)

RayGuy

Yes

Invested

$81.44

Value

$116.39

PnL

+$34.96

Record

82%

23-5 (28)

HolyMoses7

Yes

Invested

$76.77

Value

$114.51

PnL

+$44.49

Record

50%

1757-1780 (3537)

Anjun<$100

Yes

Invested

$16

Value

$47.52

PnL

+$61.92

Record

55%

5188-4275 (9463)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$38.49

PnL

+$56.68

Record

45%

2992-3689 (6681)

RadioCCOD<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.73

Value

$32.36

PnL

+$49.3

Record

36%

96-174 (270)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.48

Value

$23.76

PnL

+$10.28

Record

41%

14-20 (34)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$11.88

PnL

+$7.88

Record

17%

4501-22036 (26537)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

76h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.6%

40.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.