Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-24 House election by 3%-6%?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 91¢ · $51 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$51.09
-$0.25
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 92.2¢ | $27.65 | $27.3 | -$0.35 | 4% 14-366 (380) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $18.4 | $18 | -$0.4 | 50% 4483-4431 (8914) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.6¢ | $2.74 | $3.24 | +$0.5 | 40% 3001-4411 (7412) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $2.55 | $2.55 | +$0 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
Invested
$27.65
Value
$27.3
PnL
-$0.35
Record
4%
14-366 (380)
balthazar<$100Invested
$18.4
Value
$18
PnL
-$0.4
Record
50%
4483-4431 (8914)
Invested
$2.74
Value
$3.24
PnL
+$0.5
Record
40%
3001-4411 (7412)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.