Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-12 House election by 25%-30%?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 97¢ · $100 held · ends Nov 4

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$100

Combined PnL

-$19.27

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$66.89

Total Shares69

Combined PnL+$1.05

Yes2 traders

Total Value$32.85

Total Shares352

Combined PnL-$20.31

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
2B9S<$100	Noavg 84¢	$38.03	$38.75	+$0.71	18% 3784-17100 (20884)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.5¢	$61.86	$31.41	-$21.29	36% 15021-27071 (42092)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 92¢	$20.2	$20	-$0.2	24% 285-919 (1204)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 86¢	$7.61	$8.14	+$0.53	52% 4926-4535 (9461)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$0.47	$1.44	+$0.97	60% 3282-2203 (5485)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$38.03

Value

$38.75

PnL

+$0.71

Record

18%

3784-17100 (20884)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.86

Value

$31.41

PnL

-$21.29

Record

36%

15021-27071 (42092)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$20.2

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.2

Record

24%

285-919 (1204)

korda77<$100

Invested

$7.61

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$0.53

Record

52%

4926-4535 (9461)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

$1.44

PnL

+$0.97

Record

60%

3282-2203 (5485)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.