Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-06 House election by 15%-20%?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 65¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$255.97

Smart Money Entry

61.5¢ → 64.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,400

Combined PnL+$245.64

Yes1 trader

Total Value$69.67

Total Shares111

Combined PnL+$10.34

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fkpa	Noavg 58.6¢	$666.71	$836.17	+$183.44	— 1-0 (1)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 65.8¢	$698.16	$585.85	+$64.69	36% 15021-27071 (42092)
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$59.33	$69.67	+$10.34	55% 4894-3954 (8848)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 65.6¢	$64.12	$60.06	-$2.2	24% 285-919 (1204)
74 0x7495...7fcf<$100	Noavg 66¢	$13.2	$12.9	-$0.3	—

fkpa

Invested

$666.71

Value

$836.17

PnL

+$183.44

Record

—

1-0 (1)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$698.16

Value

$585.85

PnL

+$64.69

Record

36%

15021-27071 (42092)

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.33

Value

$69.67

PnL

+$10.34

Record

55%

4894-3954 (8848)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$64.12

Value

$60.06

PnL

-$2.2

Record

24%

285-919 (1204)

0x7495...7fcf<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

$12.9

PnL

-$0.3

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.4%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.