Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Lieutenant Governor election?

17 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 96¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 3

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 96.4¢

+36% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 19 top traders (89%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares5,926

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$464.85

Total Shares614

Combined PnL-$46.73

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

288h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 66.9¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	+$416.58	45% 2525-3059 (5584)
HO HotDogs	Noavg 96.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.5	94% 461-32 (493)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Noavg 28.1¢	$186.81	$654.31	+$467.5	52% 925-870 (1795)
balthazar	Noavg 42.8¢	$255.85	$588.59	+$332.74	53% 28804-25713 (54517)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 80.7¢	$396.78	$484.24	+$87.46	60% 11576-7759 (19335)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 64.6¢	$992.89	$455.11	+$156.23	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Noavg 89.9¢	$771.02	$349.3	+$22.57	55% 181-147 (328)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 84.3¢	$215.99	$252.22	+$36.23	40% 2104-3149 (5253)
PO Poligarch	Noavg 86.2¢	$193.95	$206.6	+$12.64	53% 9849-8576 (18425)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 74.1¢	$83.83	$111.46	+$27.63	47% 2081-2362 (4443)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 71.5¢	$50	$68.85	+$40.63	79% 12088-3268 (15356)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 87.4¢	$58.37	$65.82	+$7.45	47% 1630-1807 (3437)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 91.7¢	$60.8	$65.29	+$4.48	73% 13591-5101 (18692)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$52.32	$53.57	+$1.25	38% 997-1606 (2603)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 33.4¢	$16.5	$48.61	+$32.11	39% 1003-1586 (2589)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 78.4¢	$149.37	$42.84	+$14.54	53% 8051-7154 (15205)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 92¢	$14.02	$14.8	+$0.79	55% 4365-3560 (7925)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 75¢	$402.41	$9.74	-$202.96	50% 1748-1776 (3524)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 44¢	$5.11	$4.52	-$0.59	37% 219-366 (585)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$1,673.27

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$416.58

Record

45%

2525-3059 (5584)

HotDogs

Invested

$1,157.49

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.5

Record

94%

461-32 (493)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Invested

$186.81

Value

$654.31

PnL

+$467.5

Record

52%

925-870 (1795)

balthazar

Invested

$255.85

Value

$588.59

PnL

+$332.74

Record

53%

28804-25713 (54517)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$396.78

Value

$484.24

PnL

+$87.46

Record

60%

11576-7759 (19335)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$992.89

Value

$455.11

PnL

+$156.23

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Invested

$771.02

Value

$349.3

PnL

+$22.57

Record

55%

181-147 (328)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$215.99

Value

$252.22

PnL

+$36.23

Record

40%

2104-3149 (5253)

Poligarch

Invested

$193.95

Value

$206.6

PnL

+$12.64

Record

53%

9849-8576 (18425)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$83.83

Value

$111.46

PnL

+$27.63

Record

47%

2081-2362 (4443)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$68.85

PnL

+$40.63

Record

79%

12088-3268 (15356)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$58.37

Value

$65.82

PnL

+$7.45

Record

47%

1630-1807 (3437)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$60.8

Value

$65.29

PnL

+$4.48

Record

73%

13591-5101 (18692)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$52.32

Value

$53.57

PnL

+$1.25

Record

38%

997-1606 (2603)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$16.5

Value

$48.61

PnL

+$32.11

Record

39%

1003-1586 (2589)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$149.37

Value

$42.84

PnL

+$14.54

Record

53%

8051-7154 (15205)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$14.02

Value

$14.8

PnL

+$0.79

Record

55%

4365-3560 (7925)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$402.41

Value

$9.74

PnL

-$202.96

Record

50%

1748-1776 (3524)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$5.11

Value

$4.52

PnL

-$0.59

Record

37%

219-366 (585)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 19 top traders (89%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

288h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.