Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 100¢ · $727 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$727.09
$6.19
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
175h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL Albert 1953 | Noavg 83.4¢ | $606.28 | $724.09 | +$117.81 | 49% 1217-1262 (2479) |
SH shiifooCTR | Yesavg 18.7¢ | $103.96 | $2.23 | -$101.73 | 48% 5218-5762 (10980) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $8.22 | $0.39 | -$7.82 | 37% 335-563 (898) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $0.85 | $0.3 | -$0.56 | 43% 5588-7271 (12859) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $0.91 | $0.08 | -$1.52 | 55% 42191-34106 (76297) |
Invested
$606.28
Value
$724.09
PnL
+$117.81
Record
49%
1217-1262 (2479)
Invested
$103.96
Value
$2.23
PnL
-$101.73
Record
48%
5218-5762 (10980)
Invested
$8.22
Value
$0.39
PnL
-$7.82
Record
37%
335-563 (898)
Invested
$0.85
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$0.56
Record
43%
5588-7271 (12859)
Invested
$0.91
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$1.52
Record
55%
42191-34106 (76297)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.