Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 10%-15%?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 70¢ · $697 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$697.48
$107.62
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 71¢ | $200.22 | $348.04 | +$2.24 | — |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 27.1¢ | $279.38 | $180.45 | +$40.17 | 36% 15321-27387 (42708) |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.6¢ | $60.03 | $89.66 | +$29.64 | — 5-1 (6) |
 fkpaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.1¢ | $39.63 | $75.72 | +$36.09 | — 1-0 (1) |
 BigRabbitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $4.05 | $3.6 | -$0.53 | 40% 700-1052 (1752) |
Invested
$200.22
Value
$348.04
PnL
+$2.24
Record
—
Invested
$279.38
Value
$180.45
PnL
+$40.17
Record
36%
15321-27387 (42708)
Invested
$60.03
Value
$89.66
PnL
+$29.64
Record
—
5-1 (6)
fkpaCTR<$100Invested
$39.63
Value
$75.72
PnL
+$36.09
Record
—
1-0 (1)
BigRabbitCTR<$100Invested
$4.05
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$0.53
Record
40%
700-1052 (1752)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.