Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (76%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 24¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$1.4K
$648.71
57.7¢ → 23.7¢
-59% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
202h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 thanksforplayin | Yesavg 7.2¢ | $52.08 | $625.38 | +$521.46 | 56% 711-565 (1276) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 38.5¢ | $908.8 | $566.43 | +$470.68 | 34% 19350-36905 (56255) |
 RayGuy | Yesavg 70.7¢ | $88.73 | $122.4 | +$33.67 | 82% 23-5 (28) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Noavg 76¢ | $200.64 | $90.94 | -$372.64 | 69% 7210-3193 (10403) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $5.38 | $0.92 | -$4.46 | 53% 8597-7672 (16269) |
thanksforplayinInvested
$52.08
Value
$625.38
PnL
+$521.46
Record
56%
711-565 (1276)
Invested
$908.8
Value
$566.43
PnL
+$470.68
Record
34%
19350-36905 (56255)
RayGuyInvested
$88.73
Value
$122.4
PnL
+$33.67
Record
82%
23-5 (28)
Invested
$200.64
Value
$90.94
PnL
-$372.64
Record
69%
7210-3193 (10403)
Invested
$5.38
Value
$0.92
PnL
-$4.46
Record
53%
8597-7672 (16269)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.