Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 40¢ · $526 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$525.6
$153.16
21.4¢ → 39.5¢
+85% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 23¢ | $567.84 | $303.92 | +$122 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 75.4¢ | $140.98 | $130 | -$1.39 | 24% 285-919 (1204) |
 fkpaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $26.32 | $68.27 | +$41.95 | — 1-0 (1) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $32.8 | $23.4 | -$9.4 | 61% 20778-13190 (33968) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.