Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $302 held · ended Nov 4

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$301.76

Combined PnL

-$44.83

Smart Money Entry

91.6¢ → 97.2¢

+6% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$278.55

Total Shares273

Combined PnL+$11.61

Yes3 traders

Total Value$23.21

Total Shares721

Combined PnL-$56.44

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anciano<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$81.86	$82.07	+$0.21	54% 1325-1139 (2464)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 81.4¢	$169.43	$64.27	+$10.68	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98¢	$29.47	$29.97	+$0.58	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.97	-$0	47% 8350-9514 (17864)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 75.2¢	$19.88	$21.14	+$1.26	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yes	$20.5	$19.99	-$38.87	45% 2819-3389 (6208)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$18.72	$19.98	+$1.26	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 81.7¢	$96.4	$13.35	-$4.74	14% 461-2750 (3211)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 91.7¢	$18.43	$12.8	+$1.28	42% 5392-7314 (12706)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 78.1¢	$3.91	$5	+$1.09	50% 657-658 (1315)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.9¢	$19.71	$2.9	-$16.81	59% 13-9 (22)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.8¢	$1.08	$0.32	-$0.76	71% 7114-2861 (9975)

anciano<$100

Invested

$81.86

Value

$82.07

PnL

+$0.21

Record

54%

1325-1139 (2464)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$169.43

Value

$64.27

PnL

+$10.68

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.47

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.58

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.97

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

8350-9514 (17864)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$19.88

Value

$21.14

PnL

+$1.26

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.5

Value

$19.99

PnL

-$38.87

Record

45%

2819-3389 (6208)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$18.72

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$1.26

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$96.4

Value

$13.35

PnL

-$4.74

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$18.43

Value

$12.8

PnL

+$1.28

Record

42%

5392-7314 (12706)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$3.91

Value

PnL

+$1.09

Record

50%

657-658 (1315)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.71

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$16.81

Record

59%

13-9 (22)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$0.76

Record

71%

7114-2861 (9975)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.