Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-13 House election by 40%-45%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 81¢ · $333 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$332.76
-$41.65
77.8¢ → 80.8¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 77¢ | $607.18 | $248.79 | +$4.66 | 36% 15014-27067 (42081) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 80.9¢ | $50.63 | $43.66 | -$6.97 | 18% 3784-17097 (20881) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 82.1¢ | $21.02 | $20 | -$1.02 | 24% 285-905 (1190) |
 fkpaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.2¢ | $57.76 | $19.22 | -$38.54 | — 1-0 (1) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.1¢ | $0.87 | $1.09 | +$0.22 | 60% 3279-2201 (5480) |
Invested
$607.18
Value
$248.79
PnL
+$4.66
Record
36%
15014-27067 (42081)
2B9S<$100Invested
$50.63
Value
$43.66
PnL
-$6.97
Record
18%
3784-17097 (20881)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$21.02
Value
$20
PnL
-$1.02
Record
24%
285-905 (1190)
fkpaCTR<$100Invested
$57.76
Value
$19.22
PnL
-$38.54
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$0.87
Value
$1.09
PnL
+$0.22
Record
60%
3279-2201 (5480)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.