Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-03 House election by 25%-30%?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 73¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$2.6K
$4.69
85.2¢ → 73¢
-14% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 85.1¢ | $2.5K | $2.3K | -$2.68 | 17% 393-1939 (2332) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 86.7¢ | $1.1K | $168.52 | +$3.74 | 35% 16906-31245 (48151) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 84.7¢ | $41.22 | $40 | -$1.22 | 21% 2257-8431 (10688) |
SP SPLPB<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $25.5 | $27.45 | +$1.95 | 25% 665-1952 (2617) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $17.18 | $18.3 | +$1.12 | 53% 7522-6644 (14166) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $16.8 | $18.3 | +$1.5 | 56% 18332-14683 (33015) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100 | Noavg 86.9¢ | $5.21 | $5.49 | +$0.28 | 56% 5852-4578 (10430) |
IstarothInvested
$2,479.55
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$2.68
Record
17%
393-1939 (2332)
Invested
$1,145.9
Value
$168.52
PnL
+$3.74
Record
35%
16906-31245 (48151)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$41.22
Value
$40
PnL
-$1.22
Record
21%
2257-8431 (10688)
Invested
$25.5
Value
$27.45
PnL
+$1.95
Record
25%
665-1952 (2617)
Invested
$17.18
Value
$18.3
PnL
+$1.12
Record
53%
7522-6644 (14166)
Invested
$16.8
Value
$18.3
PnL
+$1.5
Record
56%
18332-14683 (33015)
Invested
$5.21
Value
$5.49
PnL
+$0.28
Record
56%
5852-4578 (10430)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.