Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-14 House election by 10%-15%?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 75¢ · $605 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$605
-$5.69
75.8¢ → 75.1¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 77.2¢ | $608.98 | $316.31 | -$12.67 | 35% 14814-26946 (41760) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 68.5¢ | $449.75 | $95.78 | -$14.7 | 28% 280-738 (1018) |
 Anjun<$100 | Noavg 76.8¢ | $86.79 | $77.67 | -$9.12 | 55% 4888-3950 (8838) |
 fkpaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.9¢ | $59.19 | $68.42 | +$27.9 | — 1-0 (1) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $43.58 | $46.48 | +$2.9 | 18% 3781-17070 (20851) |
Invested
$608.98
Value
$316.31
PnL
-$12.67
Record
35%
14814-26946 (41760)
IstarothInvested
$449.75
Value
$95.78
PnL
-$14.7
Record
28%
280-738 (1018)
Anjun<$100Invested
$86.79
Value
$77.67
PnL
-$9.12
Record
55%
4888-3950 (8838)
fkpaCTR<$100Invested
$59.19
Value
$68.42
PnL
+$27.9
Record
—
1-0 (1)
2B9S<$100Invested
$43.58
Value
$46.48
PnL
+$2.9
Record
18%
3781-17070 (20851)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.