Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-04 House election by 35%-40%?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 86¢ · $508 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$507.58
$111.82
85.8¢ → 85.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 88¢ | $253.11 | $246.04 | -$0.81 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
SH shiifoo | Noavg 89.8¢ | $149.12 | $141.93 | -$7.19 | 59% 3437-2346 (5783) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 71.6¢ | $87.66 | $63.93 | +$3.27 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
 fkpa | Noavg 66.6¢ | $355.31 | $25.96 | +$130.76 | — 1-0 (1) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $18.4 | $18.5 | +$0.1 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.9¢ | $25.54 | $11.23 | -$14.32 | 18% 3833-17382 (21215) |
IstarothInvested
$253.11
Value
$246.04
PnL
-$0.81
Record
18%
366-1654 (2020)
Invested
$149.12
Value
$141.93
PnL
-$7.19
Record
59%
3437-2346 (5783)
Invested
$87.66
Value
$63.93
PnL
+$3.27
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
fkpaInvested
$355.31
Value
$25.96
PnL
+$130.76
Record
—
1-0 (1)
balthazar<$100Invested
$18.4
Value
$18.5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$25.54
Value
$11.23
PnL
-$14.32
Record
18%
3833-17382 (21215)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.