Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-04 House election by 25%-30%?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 87¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$232.57

Smart Money Entry

73.7¢ → 86.7¢

+18% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,225

Combined PnL+$133.18

Yes2 traders

Total Value$20.71

Total Shares155

Combined PnL+$99.39

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 74.2¢	$436.87	$463.67	+$53.81	35% 16978-31455 (48433)
balthazar	Noavg 71.3¢	$149.76	$181.86	+$32.1	55% 26056-21461 (47517)
2B9S	Noavg 81.1¢	$175.04	$157.74	-$2.77	18% 4067-19070 (23137)
DO donthackme	Noavg 70.1¢	$97.98	$121.1	+$23.12	73% 11108-4104 (15212)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 70.1¢	$94.64	$116.91	+$22.27	42% 6041-8253 (14294)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 65.6¢	$13.12	$17.32	+$4.2	55% 5893-4787 (10680)
fkpaCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$80.6	$16.55	+$99.92	— 1-0 (1)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 84.9¢	$7.02	$6.98	-$0.04	16% 247-1263 (1510)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 80.5¢	$6.44	$6.93	+$0.49	52% 3214-2934 (6148)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.1¢	$4.68	$4.15	-$0.53	45% 2377-2944 (5321)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$436.87

Value

$463.67

PnL

+$53.81

Record

35%

16978-31455 (48433)

balthazar

Invested

$149.76

Value

$181.86

PnL

+$32.1

Record

55%

26056-21461 (47517)

2B9S

Invested

$175.04

Value

$157.74

PnL

-$2.77

Record

18%

4067-19070 (23137)

donthackme

Invested

$97.98

Value

$121.1

PnL

+$23.12

Record

73%

11108-4104 (15212)

godblessme2026

Invested

$94.64

Value

$116.91

PnL

+$22.27

Record

42%

6041-8253 (14294)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$13.12

Value

$17.32

PnL

+$4.2

Record

55%

5893-4787 (10680)

fkpaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.6

Value

$16.55

PnL

+$99.92

Record

—

1-0 (1)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$7.02

Value

$6.98

PnL

-$0.04

Record

16%

247-1263 (1510)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$6.44

Value

$6.93

PnL

+$0.49

Record

52%

3214-2934 (6148)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.68

Value

$4.15

PnL

-$0.53

Record

45%

2377-2944 (5321)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.1%

86.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.