Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-13 House election by 0%-5%?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $897 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$897.36
$16.91
79.3¢ → 98.9¢
+25% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Mature
38h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 80.5¢ | $1.1K | $414.79 | -$5.89 | 45% 2525-3059 (5584) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 73.9¢ | $1.2K | $357.29 | +$20.75 | 35% 17800-33165 (50965) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $15.2 | $50.35 | +$1.91 | 20% 2535-10042 (12577) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $39.81 | $39.96 | +$0.15 | 60% 11576-7759 (19335) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | -$0 | 51% 3540-3430 (6970) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $5 | -$0 | 30% 2222-5090 (7312) |
Invested
$1,100.65
Value
$414.79
PnL
-$5.89
Record
45%
2525-3059 (5584)
Invested
$1,156.98
Value
$357.29
PnL
+$20.75
Record
35%
17800-33165 (50965)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$15.2
Value
$50.35
PnL
+$1.91
Record
20%
2535-10042 (12577)
Invested
$39.81
Value
$39.96
PnL
+$0.15
Record
60%
11576-7759 (19335)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
3540-3430 (6970)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
-$0
Record
30%
2222-5090 (7312)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.