Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-08 House election by 18% or more?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 100¢ · $894 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$894.02

Combined PnL

-$30.75

Smart Money Entry

81.4¢ → 99.5¢

+22% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$893.83

Total Shares966

Combined PnL-$4.39

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.19

Total Shares189

Combined PnL-$26.37

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

298h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 78.4¢	$1.0K	$585.84	+$12.1	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
HolyMoses7<$100	Noavg 99¢	$85.92	$80.24	-$5.67	54% 1638-1406 (3044)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 81.3¢	$78.5	$55.65	-$22.85	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 81¢	$46.99	$53.99	+$7	45% 2824-3398 (6222)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 79.4¢	$36.05	$42	+$5.95	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
DO donthackme<$100	No	$37	$37	+$0	73% 12875-4800 (17675)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$13.77	$12.98	-$0.79	72% 13979-5358 (19337)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 94¢	$12.46	$12.26	-$0.2	32% 2522-5398 (7920)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 88¢	$8.8	$9.25	+$0.45	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 81¢	$5.05	$4.63	-$0.37	14% 461-2758 (3219)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.1¢	$26.55	$0.19	-$26.37	— 7-7 (14)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$1,031.34

Value

$585.84

PnL

+$12.1

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

HolyMoses7<$100

Invested

$85.92

Value

$80.24

PnL

-$5.67

Record

54%

1638-1406 (3044)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$78.5

Value

$55.65

PnL

-$22.85

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$46.99

Value

$53.99

PnL

+$7

Record

45%

2824-3398 (6222)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$36.05

Value

$42

PnL

+$5.95

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$37

Value

$37

PnL

+$0

Record

73%

12875-4800 (17675)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$13.77

Value

$12.98

PnL

-$0.79

Record

72%

13979-5358 (19337)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$12.46

Value

$12.26

PnL

-$0.2

Record

32%

2522-5398 (7920)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$8.8

Value

$9.25

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$4.63

PnL

-$0.37

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.55

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$26.37

Record

—

7-7 (14)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

298h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.