Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-03 House election by 0%-3%?

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (10%) · No at 59¢ · $686 held · ended Nov 4

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 10%

Total Value

$685.88

Combined PnL

$183.81

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$519.68

Total Shares1,163

Combined PnL+$238.19

No1 trader

Total Value$166.19

Total Shares301

Combined PnL-$54.38

Yes — 90%No — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 16.2¢	$95.22	$168.09	+$72.87	34% 19149-36800 (55949)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 79.1¢	$220.57	$166.19	-$54.38	45% 2965-3662 (6627)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR	Yesavg 19.3¢	$53.11	$122.99	+$42.66	55% 17-14 (31)
HolyMoses7CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$14.45	$77.78	+$45.32	50% 1753-1779 (3532)
RA RadioCCODCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$6.68	$73.84	+$49.9	32% 81-170 (251)
RayGuyCTR<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$31.8	$26.82	-$1.95	85% 23-4 (27)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yes	$18.87	$18.87	+$12.33	67% 27461-13817 (41278)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.9¢	$5.97	$13.41	+$7.11	53% 8535-7609 (16144)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$4	$8.94	+$4.94	19% 2858-12194 (15052)
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$8.94	+$5.02	77% 342-104 (446)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$95.22

Value

$168.09

PnL

+$72.87

Record

34%

19149-36800 (55949)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$220.57

Value

$166.19

PnL

-$54.38

Record

45%

2965-3662 (6627)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR

Yes

Invested

$53.11

Value

$122.99

PnL

+$42.66

Record

55%

17-14 (31)

HolyMoses7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.45

Value

$77.78

PnL

+$45.32

Record

50%

1753-1779 (3532)

RadioCCODCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.68

Value

$73.84

PnL

+$49.9

Record

32%

81-170 (251)

RayGuyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.8

Value

$26.82

PnL

-$1.95

Record

85%

23-4 (27)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.87

Value

$18.87

PnL

+$12.33

Record

67%

27461-13817 (41278)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.97

Value

$13.41

PnL

+$7.11

Record

53%

8535-7609 (16144)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$8.94

PnL

+$4.94

Record

19%

2858-12194 (15052)

0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$8.94

PnL

+$5.02

Record

77%

342-104 (446)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.0%

59.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.