Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MT-02 House election by 15%-20%?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 81¢ · $622 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
1 arb excluded
$622.18
$104.73
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
94h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $819.48 | $267.42 | -$18.77 | 35% 17577-32882 (50459) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 76.9¢ | $185.42 | $188.21 | -$140.63 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.1¢ | $90.4 | $79.21 | +$121.86 | |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Noavg 63.4¢ | $196.92 | $260.9 | +$63.98 | — 9-6 (15) |
 fkpaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.5¢ | $54.1 | $51.6 | -$4.81 | — 1-0 (1) |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.7¢ | $61.75 | $35.91 | +$51.28 | — |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $11.78 | $6.35 | -$5.72 | 17% 1066-5342 (6408) |
Invested
$819.48
Value
$267.42
PnL
-$18.77
Record
35%
17577-32882 (50459)
Both legs:
Invested
$196.92
Value
$260.9
PnL
+$63.98
Record
—
9-6 (15)
fkpaCTR<$100Invested
$54.1
Value
$51.6
PnL
-$4.81
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$61.75
Value
$35.91
PnL
+$51.28
Record
—
Invested
$11.78
Value
$6.35
PnL
-$5.72
Record
17%
1066-5342 (6408)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.