Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MS-01 House election by 25%-30%?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 20¢ · $127 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$127.16
$62.79
27.8¢ → 20¢
-28% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 27.6¢ | $39.31 | $89.06 | +$49.75 | 35% 17512-32753 (50265) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $11.6 | $22.4 | +$9.52 | 20% 2455-9831 (12286) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $8.18 | $10.55 | +$0.07 | 53% 7830-6946 (14776) |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.4¢ | $1.7 | $5.15 | +$3.45 | — |
Invested
$39.31
Value
$89.06
PnL
+$49.75
Record
35%
17512-32753 (50265)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$11.6
Value
$22.4
PnL
+$9.52
Record
20%
2455-9831 (12286)
Invested
$8.18
Value
$10.55
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
7830-6946 (14776)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$5.15
PnL
+$3.45
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.