Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-08 House election by 40%-45%?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 66¢ · $494 held · ends Nov 4

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$494.47

Combined PnL

$28.24

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$145.2

Total Shares220

Combined PnL-$11.85

Yes3 traders

Total Value$96.57

Total Shares323

Combined PnL+$40.09

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-50 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

497h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (2 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 69.2¢	$463.24	$252.7	+$7.96	35% 14652-26739 (41391)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.2¢	$151.9	$142.67	-$51.2
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.8¢	$101.61	$110.03	+$59.16
Car	Noavg 71.4¢	$157.05	$145.2	-$11.85	67% 4133-1998 (6131)
fkpaCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.9¢	$20.41	$54.44	+$34.03	— 1-0 (1)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.2¢	$15.26	$21.72	+$6.46	18% 3777-16967 (20744)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.6¢	$20.88	$20.4	-$0.4	30% 277-642 (919)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$463.24

Value

$252.7

PnL

+$7.96

Record

35%

14652-26739 (41391)

Both legs:

No$151.969.2¢-$51.2

Yes$101.6126.8¢+$59.16

Car

Invested

$157.05

Value

$145.2

PnL

-$11.85

Record

67%

4133-1998 (6131)

fkpaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.41

Value

$54.44

PnL

+$34.03

Record

—

1-0 (1)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.26

Value

$21.72

PnL

+$6.46

Record

18%

3777-16967 (20744)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.88

Value

$20.4

PnL

-$0.4

Record

30%

277-642 (919)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-50 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

497h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (2 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.9%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.