Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-07 House election by 25%-30%?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 57¢ · $687 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$686.62
$375.98
20.2¢ → 56.8¢
+181% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Mature
40h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 12.5¢ | $41.11 | $214.33 | +$173.22 | 34% 19186-36821 (56007) |
 RayGuy | Yesavg 14.7¢ | $37 | $155.15 | +$86.05 | 85% 23-4 (27) |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Yesavg 12.2¢ | $21.36 | $124.81 | +$103.44 | 55% 17-14 (31) |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl | Yesavg 50.6¢ | $136.24 | $96.44 | -$39.8 | 32% 8-17 (25) |
RA RadioCCOD<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $17.54 | $69.26 | +$51.72 | 32% 81-170 (251) |
 thanksforplayin<$100 | Yesavg 76¢ | $20.18 | $15.19 | -$4.33 | 56% 696-551 (1247) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 19.7¢ | $11.82 | $11.45 | +$5.67 | 17% 4496-22007 (26503) |
Invested
$41.11
Value
$214.33
PnL
+$173.22
Record
34%
19186-36821 (56007)
RayGuyInvested
$37
Value
$155.15
PnL
+$86.05
Record
85%
23-4 (27)
Invested
$21.36
Value
$124.81
PnL
+$103.44
Record
55%
17-14 (31)
Invested
$136.24
Value
$96.44
PnL
-$39.8
Record
32%
8-17 (25)
Invested
$17.54
Value
$69.26
PnL
+$51.72
Record
32%
81-170 (251)
thanksforplayin<$100Invested
$20.18
Value
$15.19
PnL
-$4.33
Record
56%
696-551 (1247)
2B9S<$100Invested
$11.82
Value
$11.45
PnL
+$5.67
Record
17%
4496-22007 (26503)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.