Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-06 House election by 35% or more?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 84¢ · $440 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$440.4
-$3.5
83.1¢ → 83.6¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 81.7¢ | $303.87 | $301.55 | +$3.26 | 35% 16978-31455 (48433) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 77.7¢ | $44.23 | $43.78 | -$0.44 | 18% 4067-19070 (23137) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $38.7 | $33.54 | -$5.16 | 56% 18394-14718 (33112) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 84.6¢ | $25.38 | $25.16 | -$0.22 | 59% 3563-2477 (6040) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $21.45 | $20.06 | -$0.01 | 17% 402-2020 (2422) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 82.1¢ | $9.4 | $9.6 | +$0.2 | 72% 12221-4831 (17052) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $7.82 | $6.71 | -$1.12 | 55% 5893-4787 (10680) |
Invested
$303.87
Value
$301.55
PnL
+$3.26
Record
35%
16978-31455 (48433)
2B9S<$100Invested
$44.23
Value
$43.78
PnL
-$0.44
Record
18%
4067-19070 (23137)
Invested
$38.7
Value
$33.54
PnL
-$5.16
Record
56%
18394-14718 (33112)
Invested
$25.38
Value
$25.16
PnL
-$0.22
Record
59%
3563-2477 (6040)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$21.45
Value
$20.06
PnL
-$0.01
Record
17%
402-2020 (2422)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$9.6
PnL
+$0.2
Record
72%
12221-4831 (17052)
Invested
$7.82
Value
$6.71
PnL
-$1.12
Record
55%
5893-4787 (10680)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.