Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-04 House election by 20%-25%?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 36¢ · $251 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$250.93
$176.89
Research grade
NeutralYes at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 9.4¢ | $535.05 | $166.26 | +$122.99 | 35% 17355-32033 (49388) |
 fkpaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $20.3 | $56.23 | +$35.92 | — 1-0 (1) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.2¢ | $79 | $28.44 | +$17.98 | 59% 3608-2503 (6111) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.