Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-03 House election by 30% or more?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
1
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$551.58
-$0.65
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 87.8¢ | $362.18 | $360.09 | -$0.65 | 31% 273-604 (877) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 75.2¢ | $151.25 | $191.48 | +$41.4 | 36% 14598-26253 (40851) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75.2¢ | $91.95 | $103.1 | +$10.86 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 10.3¢ | $58.3 | $88.38 | +$30.54 |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.