Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 1 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MN-06 House election by 15%-20%?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (14%) · Yes at 35¢ · $265 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 14%
$265.03
$52.35
Research grade
NeutralYes at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 28.3¢ | $196.56 | $183.12 | +$56.57 | 35% 16978-31455 (48433) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 66.8¢ | $33.45 | $31.16 | -$0.33 | 17% 402-2020 (2422) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $19.6 | $20 | +$0.4 | 21% 2286-8721 (11007) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $14.8 | $12.5 | -$2.3 | 50% 7869-7957 (15826) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $10.35 | $9.38 | -$0.97 | 55% 5893-4787 (10680) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $8.97 | $8.13 | -$0.85 | 52% 3214-2934 (6148) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $0.92 | $0.74 | -$0.17 | 44% 4040-5234 (9274) |
Invested
$196.56
Value
$183.12
PnL
+$56.57
Record
35%
16978-31455 (48433)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$33.45
Value
$31.16
PnL
-$0.33
Record
17%
402-2020 (2422)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$19.6
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.4
Record
21%
2286-8721 (11007)
Invested
$14.8
Value
$12.5
PnL
-$2.3
Record
50%
7869-7957 (15826)
Invested
$10.35
Value
$9.38
PnL
-$0.97
Record
55%
5893-4787 (10680)
Invested
$8.97
Value
$8.13
PnL
-$0.85
Record
52%
3214-2934 (6148)
Invested
$0.92
Value
$0.74
PnL
-$0.17
Record
44%
4040-5234 (9274)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.