Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 1.2%-1.5%?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $55 held · ends Nov 21
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 78%
$55.3
-$58.83
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+11 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $42.83 | $30.08 | -$12.75 | 25% 92-281 (373) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $25.6 | $25 | -$0.6 | 40% 3250-4894 (8144) |
 probabilityCTR | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $172.48 | $0.12 | -$27.52 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $7.13 | $0.05 | -$7.08 | 47% 4825-5515 (10340) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $34.27 | $0.03 | -$6.38 | 27% 949-2550 (3499) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $1.49 | $0.01 | -$1.48 | — 9-0 (9) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $1.43 | $0.01 | -$1.42 | 30% 2961-6982 (9943) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $1.22 | $0.01 | -$1.21 | 43% 2575-3401 (5976) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $0.38 | $0 | -$0.38 | 37% 3468-5985 (9453) |
Invested
$42.83
Value
$30.08
PnL
-$12.75
Record
25%
92-281 (373)
Invested
$25.6
Value
$25
PnL
-$0.6
Record
40%
3250-4894 (8144)
probabilityCTRInvested
$172.48
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$27.52
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$7.13
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$7.08
Record
47%
4825-5515 (10340)
Invested
$34.27
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$6.38
Record
27%
949-2550 (3499)
Invested
$1.49
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.48
Record
—
9-0 (9)
Invested
$1.43
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.42
Record
30%
2961-6982 (9943)
Invested
$1.22
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.21
Record
43%
2575-3401 (5976)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$0.38
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.38
Record
37%
3468-5985 (9453)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.