Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 0.9%-1.2%?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $123 held · ends Nov 21
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 56%
$123.45
-$41.54
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
-1 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $43.56 | $42.98 | -$0.57 | 40% 3250-4894 (8144) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 26% 871-2505 (3376) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 17% 93-449 (542) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.98 | +$0 | 53% 6080-5449 (11529) |
 probabilityCTR | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $232.6 | $0.25 | -$27.32 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $7.13 | $0.15 | -$6.98 | 47% 4825-5515 (10340) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $4.93 | $0.1 | -$4.83 | 25% 92-281 (373) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $1.49 | $0.03 | -$1.46 | — 9-0 (9) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $0.38 | $0.01 | -$0.37 | 37% 3468-5985 (9453) |
Invested
$43.56
Value
$42.98
PnL
-$0.57
Record
40%
3250-4894 (8144)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
871-2505 (3376)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
93-449 (542)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6080-5449 (11529)
probabilityCTRInvested
$232.6
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$27.32
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$7.13
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$6.98
Record
47%
4825-5515 (10340)
Invested
$4.93
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$4.83
Record
25%
92-281 (373)
Invested
$1.49
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.46
Record
—
9-0 (9)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$0.38
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.37
Record
37%
3468-5985 (9453)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.