Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-02 House election by 25%-30%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 91¢ · $641 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$640.63
$37.02
80.4¢ → 91¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
451h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 79.2¢ | $657.28 | $381.31 | +$29.01 | 36% 15301-27370 (42671) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 81.8¢ | $135.35 | $134.9 | -$0.23 | 21% 300-1130 (1430) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 84.4¢ | $56.49 | $62.96 | +$6.47 | 18% 3793-17185 (20978) |
 fkpaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $51.85 | $57.4 | +$5.55 | — 1-0 (1) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $7.84 | $4.06 | -$3.79 | 42% 147-200 (347) |
Invested
$657.28
Value
$381.31
PnL
+$29.01
Record
36%
15301-27370 (42671)
IstarothInvested
$135.35
Value
$134.9
PnL
-$0.23
Record
21%
300-1130 (1430)
2B9S<$100Invested
$56.49
Value
$62.96
PnL
+$6.47
Record
18%
3793-17185 (20978)
fkpaCTR<$100Invested
$51.85
Value
$57.4
PnL
+$5.55
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$7.84
Value
$4.06
PnL
-$3.79
Record
42%
147-200 (347)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.