Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (67%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-04 House election by 5%-15%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 34¢ · $393 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$393.19
-$0.98
63¢ → 33.5¢
-47% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 79.6¢ | $157.81 | $235.11 | +$77.84 | 35% 18159-34016 (52175) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 8.2¢ | $29.84 | $133.8 | +$104.18 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 79.6¢ | $127.49 | $101.31 | -$26.34 | |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100 | Noavg 84.1¢ | $83.68 | $61.55 | -$22.13 | — 7-7 (14) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 12.8¢ | $13.12 | $37.56 | +$24.44 | 18% 4284-20059 (24343) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 45.6¢ | $22.81 | $31.62 | +$8.81 | 49% 8853-9359 (18212) |
 RayGuy<$100 | Yesavg 92.5¢ | $37 | $14.7 | -$22.3 | — |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 12.3¢ | $2.46 | $12.65 | +$10.19 | 53% 29258-26174 (55432) |
Invested
$157.81
Value
$235.11
PnL
+$77.84
Record
35%
18159-34016 (52175)
Both legs:
Invested
$83.68
Value
$61.55
PnL
-$22.13
Record
—
7-7 (14)
2B9S<$100Invested
$13.12
Value
$37.56
PnL
+$24.44
Record
18%
4284-20059 (24343)
Invested
$22.81
Value
$31.62
PnL
+$8.81
Record
49%
8853-9359 (18212)
RayGuy<$100Invested
$37
Value
$14.7
PnL
-$22.3
Record
—
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.46
Value
$12.65
PnL
+$10.19
Record
53%
29258-26174 (55432)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.