Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election by 5%-10%?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 9.0¢ · $129 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$128.63
-$77.57
14.9¢ → 9¢
-40% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 9%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 randomWalkingShrimp<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $71 | $97.8 | +$26.8 | 77% 1206-366 (1572) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 16.1¢ | $118.15 | $16.54 | -$101.61 | 35% 16978-31455 (48433) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.4¢ | $10.95 | $10.44 | -$0.51 | 21% 2286-8721 (11007) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $2.2 | $3.85 | -$2.25 | 72% 6936-2743 (9679) |
randomWalkingShrimp<$100Invested
$71
Value
$97.8
PnL
+$26.8
Record
77%
1206-366 (1572)
Invested
$118.15
Value
$16.54
PnL
-$101.61
Record
35%
16978-31455 (48433)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$10.95
Value
$10.44
PnL
-$0.51
Record
21%
2286-8721 (11007)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$3.85
PnL
-$2.25
Record
72%
6936-2743 (9679)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.