Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 24¢ · $819 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$819.42
$109.58
16.7¢ → 23.7¢
+42% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 75.9¢ | $305.34 | $237.93 | -$6.78 | 17% 402-1972 (2374) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75.9¢ | $180.65 | $181.42 | -$1.63 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.7¢ | $61.13 | $56.51 | -$5.16 | |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 76.8¢ | $191.9 | $190.5 | -$1.4 | 45% 2314-2842 (5156) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 16.2¢ | $112.61 | $169.14 | +$56.52 | 35% 16955-31322 (48277) |
TR TrueDignityCTR | Yesavg 19.6¢ | $136.99 | $166.25 | +$30.66 | 37% 45-78 (123) |
 fkpaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.9¢ | $30.88 | $55.59 | +$23.8 | — 1-0 (1) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$305.34
Value
$237.93
PnL
-$6.78
Record
17%
402-1972 (2374)
Both legs:
Invested
$191.9
Value
$190.5
PnL
-$1.4
Record
45%
2314-2842 (5156)
Invested
$112.61
Value
$169.14
PnL
+$56.52
Record
35%
16955-31322 (48277)
Invested
$136.99
Value
$166.25
PnL
+$30.66
Record
37%
45-78 (123)
fkpaCTR<$100Invested
$30.88
Value
$55.59
PnL
+$23.8
Record
—
1-0 (1)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.