Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$160.65

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 97.4¢

+19% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,997

Combined PnL+$280.07

Yes2 traders

Total Value$128.99

Total Shares1,984

Combined PnL-$119.42

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 81.7¢	$639.8	$731.92	+$92.11	53% 29253-26162 (55415)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 82.4¢	$347.81	$353.5	+$122.69	45% 2819-3389 (6208)
Haradwaith	No	$34.75	$267.6	+$60.63	42% 5392-7314 (12706)
Istaroth	Noavg 83.5¢	$227.17	$217.21	-$8.58	14% 461-2750 (3211)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 80¢	$620.8	$204.19	-$0.76	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR	Yesavg 17¢	$221.25	$114.9	-$106.35	55% 3061-2467 (5528)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 82¢	$67.45	$76.91	+$9.46	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 85¢	$51.98	$52.43	+$0.45	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.9¢	$25.86	$14.08	-$13.06	56% 452-353 (805)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 74¢	$7.4	$9.35	+$1.95	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 83¢	$8.3	$9.35	+$1.05	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 80.6¢	$13.26	$7.44	+$1.07	58% 19455-14308 (33763)

balthazar

Invested

$639.8

Value

$731.92

PnL

+$92.11

Record

53%

29253-26162 (55415)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$347.81

Value

$353.5

PnL

+$122.69

Record

45%

2819-3389 (6208)

Haradwaith

Invested

$34.75

Value

$267.6

PnL

+$60.63

Record

42%

5392-7314 (12706)

Istaroth

Invested

$227.17

Value

$217.21

PnL

-$8.58

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$620.8

Value

$204.19

PnL

-$0.76

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR

Yes

Invested

$221.25

Value

$114.9

PnL

-$106.35

Record

55%

3061-2467 (5528)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$67.45

Value

$76.91

PnL

+$9.46

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$51.98

Value

$52.43

PnL

+$0.45

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.86

Value

$14.08

PnL

-$13.06

Record

56%

452-353 (805)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$7.4

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$1.95

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$8.3

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$1.05

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$13.26

Value

$7.44

PnL

+$1.07

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.