Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 78¢ · $378 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$378
$47.59
79.3¢ → 78¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 79.4¢ | $374.64 | $204.63 | +$17.98 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
 fkpaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.4¢ | $68.41 | $99.74 | +$31.33 | — 1-0 (1) |
74 0x7495...7fcf<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $37.92 | $37.2 | -$0.72 | — |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $27 | $25 | -$0.32 | 24% 285-919 (1204) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $12.29 | $11.62 | -$0.67 | 61% 20778-13190 (33968) |
Invested
$374.64
Value
$204.63
PnL
+$17.98
Record
36%
15021-27071 (42092)
fkpaCTR<$100Invested
$68.41
Value
$99.74
PnL
+$31.33
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$37.92
Value
$37.2
PnL
-$0.72
Record
—
Istaroth<$100Invested
$27
Value
$25
PnL
-$0.32
Record
24%
285-919 (1204)
balthazar<$100Invested
$12.29
Value
$11.62
PnL
-$0.67
Record
61%
20778-13190 (33968)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.